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Abstract
This study explores how the factors driving institutional excellence have changed between 2011 and 2025, drawing on comprehensive global ranking data from 2,673 universities. It focuses on three main questions: whether the determinants of excellence differ across institutional tiers, how these determinants have evolved among elite universities, and what conditions enable new universities to enter global rankings. Using stratified quantile regression and panel analyses of a persistent elite cohort, the study finds clear differences in the significance of performance drivers across tiers. Among the top 100 universities, research quality and citation impact are the strongest predictors of success, while mid-tier institutions tend to achieve better outcomes through balanced performance across multiple indicators. Over time, the importance of international outlook has increased, even as research has remained the central pillar of excellence. The global expansion of ranked institutions was concentrated in Asia, where 1,892 universities joined the rankings between 2016 and 2025. Overall, the findings highlight that institutional excellence is multidimensional and context-dependent, carrying important implications for strategic planning and higher education policy. All results remain robust under alternative metric definitions and statistical tests.
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