Keywords:-
Article Content:-
Abstract
The price of oil palm Fresh Fruit Bunches (FFB) fluctuates and is influenced by various factors such as the price of crude palm oil (CPO), market demand, and weather conditions, forecasting FFB prices is important for industry players and farmers in making decisions. The data used is FFB price data in Riau Province in a certain period. The forecasting process was carried out using R software with the forecast package. The results showed that the Holt- Winters model was able to capture trend and seasonal patterns in FFB price data with a high level of accuracy. model evaluation was carried out using Mean Absolute Error (MAE) as the main metric for measuring the level of forecasting error. The MAE value obtained shows that this model can provide a fairly accurate estimation of FFB prices. It is expected that the results of this study can be a reference for farmers and stakeholders in planning business strategies and palm oil industry policies.
References:-
References
D. Friska Putri Zal, S. Hadi, atri Yusri, M. Jurusan Agribisnis Fakultas Pertanian Universitas Riau, and D. Jurusan Agribisnis Fakultas Pertanian Universitas Riau, “Analisis Pemasaran Tandan Buah Segar (TBS) Kelapa Sawit Pola Swadaya di Desa Buluh Rampai Kecamatan Seberida Kabupaten Indragiri Hulu,” 2023.
M. Sapfera, E. Afrianto, and P. Studi Agribisnis Fakultas Pertanian Univiversitas Muara Bungo, “Kontribusi Perkebunan Kelapa Sawit Terhadap Pembangunan Perekonomian Kabupaten Bungo.”
Tety. Ermi and Situmorang. Helentina, “Analisis Penawaran Tandan Buah Segar di Provinsi Riau,” Pekbis Jurnal, vol. Vol.3, No.2, pp. 482–489, 2011.
N. P. Dewi and I. Listiowarni, “Implementasi Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing untuk Peramalan Harga Bahan Pangan di Kabupaten Pamekasan”, doi: 10.31849/digitalzone.v11i2.4797ICCS.
A. Faisal, S. Syah, P. Studi Manajemen, and F. Ekonomi, “Analisis Peramalan Harga Emas Bulanan dengan Holt Winter Exponential Smoothing 1),” vol. 29, no. 2, pp. 102–113, 2023,
doi: 10.55122/mediastima.v29i2.857.
R. Efendi, “Pengantar Analisis Runtun Waktu.”
A. B. Ariwibowo, D. Sugiarto, I. A. Marie, J. Fadhilah, and A. Siahaan, “Peramalan harga beras IR64 kualitas III menggunakan metode Multi Layer Perceptron, Holt-Winters dan Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average,” 60 ULTIMATICS, vol. XI, no. 2, 2019, [Online]. Available: www.foodstation.co.id.
U. Azmi, Z. N. Hadi, and S. Soraya, “ARDL METHOD: Forecasting Data Curah Hujan Harian NTB,” Jurnal Varian, vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 73–82, May 2020, doi: 10.30812/varian.v3i2.627.